The dollar artificially hold, therefore, Ukrainians should be prepared for a possible fall of the hryvnia
About this in his article wrote financial analyst Volodymyr Lanovyi, reports Glavred.
The expert explained that the dollar is constantly falling in price due to the fact that the offer of the American currency on the domestic market is now more, and the government once again repeats the mistakes of the past, following the path of more debt to Finance the budget deficit.
Lanoviy said that now the state is placing on the domestic market hryvnia bonds at high interest rates: if earlier it was 20%, now 18%. It’s not normal because it is two times higher real interest rates, which should be close to the inflation rate, that is 9-10%.
Creating an artificial demand for foreign loans, a country of high interest rate keeps the rest. That is, cheap loans are unable to give the citizens because the Bank is better to invest money in investment, because for them there is no risk.
“Temporarily this phenomenon has a positive impact on the economy, as it increases the solvency of the domestic market. In other words, the strengthening of the hryvnia creates opportunities for a large investment, increases the purchasing power for households and entrepreneurs. The state also wins because it spends less of the national currency to pay off debt.
But this temporary success, as the foreign owners of Ukrainian bonds after a period their turnover will sell them, get the currency and thus will provide the demand of the hryvnia to dollars for withdrawal of their capital. And it will threaten the collapse of the hryvnia and the dollar strengthening,” explains his point of view, the ex-Minister of economy of Ukraine Lanovyi
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The financial analyst also suggested that the positive situation on the currency market will last around 6 months, which can occur after a reverse trend and the hryvnia will go to the bottom.
“The growth of the outflow of labor abroad, which continues to increase the monetary revenues of the country allows to keep financial balance. And in this way he, I think, will manage to survive another six months. And then, when possible reverse the trend. However, it could happen sooner if someone don’t start another game. For example, if the national Bank will buy the excess currency obtained through bonds. This time the dollar can grow rapidly,” concluded Lanovoy in his article.
We will remind, what keeps a third of the economy of Ukraine: “this was not 10 years.”
As reported Politeka, Ukrainians massively deprived of state aid, the grant will become a luxury.
Also Politeka wrote that on pension in 60 years