In recent years, among the population rising panic that the dollar will be 50 UAH, and even higher
Experts advise to pay attention not to the statements on the Internet, and how business behaves. And the market special panic is not observed.
“It is theoretically possible to consider the scenario of a collapse of Ukraine and the course of 50 UAH, but the probability of such development of events is extremely low, likely at the level of the error, and it should not be taken into account, — said the head of Department of Analytics FOREX CLUB Andrey Shevchishin. — I am more restrained in the forecast and the expected rate of 29.5 and 30.5 to the end of the year. After the first round of the market is very slow at reacting to the outcome of the choice. And given the massive gap between the candidates, polls, and even betting, it is obvious that the situation will not change”.
And while the rate remains relatively stable, and foreign investors continue to increase investments in hryvnia government bonds. This means that the result of expectations on the presidential race is already priced in by the market.
According to him, the rate can go down if business expectations diverge from actual results.
“It is important to understand that the key challenge ahead is a large payment on its foreign debt in early may and parliamentary elections, says Andrew Shevchishin. — Given the devaluation of the autumn period, political uncertainty, risks of lack of the coalition in Parliament, and pause investors can assume the growing pressure on the hryvnia”.
The same experts confirm the thesis that monetary policy does not depend on the identity of the President, and the management actions of the national Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
“It is important to follow the work of the Ministry of Finance and the NBU,” — commented the analyst of Alpari Maxim Parkhomenko.
He added that in recent statements of opinions regarding the future of the NBU, its audit and work apart. In case of preservation of current working conditions, monetary policy will remain unchanged. If the NBU will change, it can lead to risks associated with exchange rate and inflation.
“First of all, it should be noted that the current “stability” provided artificial monetary factors, that is, the operations of the NBU and Ministry of Finance on the open market by issuing government bonds (three months and six months) under 20% and deportivisimo at 16%, — has told KP in Ukraine, financial analyst Alexei Kusch. This monetary spring is provided apparent stability of the hryvnia, purchased at the expense of the near future”.
According to him, the greatest periods of turbulence can be in may and September, when the country total need to pay currency for more than 100 billion UAH.
The dynamics of the course “above 30” will affect the two fundamental internal factor. The first is the continuation of cooperation with the IMF and the WB. The second factor is the factor of “PrivatBank”. Any negligent acts of both government and the former owners in the courts may cause outflow of funds from state-owned banks segment (270 billion), and then the state gets to hard fork to enable the printing press or to enter the moratorium on repayment. In the first case, inflation and devaluation, in the second — a social explosion. In this case, it can be expected to fall and the exchange rate above $ 30 UAH per dollar.
In addition, according to experts, the hryvnia exchange rate will be affected by external factors in the dynamics of commodity prices and a potential global crisis. But they do not depend on the personality of the future President.
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