Vladimir Zelensky has a chance to revive the Normandy format, but Putin is eager to negotiate and delay the process
Phone calls Zelensky more Putin needs the Ukrainian President. Thus he “probes” the opponent before meeting with him eye to eye. However, to expect that after the meeting, which ever would Putin suddenly softened the attention of the new Ukrainian guarantor and will do him strategic concessions, not worth it. His thoughts shared with 24 channel analyst Kyivstratpro Taras Semeniuk.
“The meeting in the Normandy format Zelensky need to talk eye to eye with Putin. Telephone calls — only zeroing. Probing of the situation, to understand the rhetoric of Putin. Although the Russian President will not meet Zelensky in full. That is, the de-escalation of military tension there will be no withdrawal of Russian troops”,
In other words, the situation in the East of Ukraine will not change dramatically, and Russian troops are withdrawn from that region. However, the “bomb” Putin calls Zelensky is still necessary, because the situation itself is not solved, and a more effective method than the negotiations in the Normandy format, to today.
At the same time, experts predict, Putin would stand his ground. He wants to force the Ukrainian government to negotiate directly with the leadership of “LDNR”. Then the Russian guarantor will be able to demonstrate to the world that the war in the East is still an internal problem of our country. And if so, then all sanctions against Russia are groundless.
“Zelensky will not go to the Russian scenario. It would mean the strengthening of the radical rhetoric of Ukrainian nationalists and the parliamentary parties who are against dialogue with the separatists. Will undermine the credibility of the President, perhaps most of his party. Remains tactics such promises Putin that he was influenced by the occupation troops,” says Semeniuk.
This exchange of requirements definitely will last until the autumn and, possibly, taking even the beginning of it, says he. Only in September will be more or less clear arrangement of the positions in Parliament and the Cabinet. Then we can take more decisive steps. And Vladimir Putin will become clearer who will be his diplomats. Of course, the Russian side will insist on a special status for the occupied territories. Vladimir Zelensky and his team have to face a difficult choice. In any case, there will be those who will approve the decision of the authorities, and those who will remain dissatisfied. However, the process still need to run, because under the previous President, he has been stuck for three years. The last meeting in Norman format, Poroshenko, took place in October 2016 in Berlin.
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“Minsk has already earned. But his tactical role. The strategic goal decided in the Normandy format. Although President Poroshenko last three years, these road maps were not working. To rehabilitate the Normandy format, we need political will of all parties,” – says the analyst.
Normandy format, in which, besides Ukraine and Russia, take part, Germany and France, involves communication at the level of heads of States and at the level of heads the Ministry of foreign Affairs. Yet, in the opinion of Taras Semenyuk, Zelensky will not be able to bring together players of the highest echelon. However, he needs to keep the initiative in their hands, to avoid being intercepted by Putin. And among his countrymen too, there are many who want to “help” him to fail the peace process.
Recall that Klitschko publicly humiliated Zelensky and revealed who it wants to replace.
As reported Politeka, Patriarch Bartholomew struck everyone at the meeting with Zelensky.
Also Politeka wrote, Zelensky “rescued” the friend of Putin.