Starts: expected growth in Gatineau, back in Ottawa

echelle-pays-attend-importantes-disparitesThe Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecasts growth of housing starts in the Gatineau region in 2016 and 2017, combined with lower side of Ottawa, which is mainly due a fall in the category of apartments.

In Gatineau, the new home market returned to growth to $ between 1750 and 1900, housing starts in 2016 and between 1850 and 2000 in 2017.

“Over the next two years, the increase in residential demand will partially sell the stock of available housing and cause thereby a strengthening of activity in the sector of residential construction, now, however, below the historical average, “said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, Senior market analyst at CMHC.

The conditions in the resale market on the Quebec side of the Ottawa River will tighten to move closer to balance next year. The sales on the Centris network will rise between 3750 and 3850 in 2016 and between 3850 and 3950 in 2017.

“This year and next year, the increase in employment and population growth will continue, which will result in a new transaction growth, the analyst added. In this context, the pressure on prices will be felt more than in past years, “she says. Thus, the overall average price will be between $ 245,500 and $ 250,400 in 2016 and between $ 249,700 and $ 256,200 in 2017.

Rental Market, having been marked by relatively relaxed conditions tightening is expected over the next two years. “More favorable economic and demographic conditions support the growth in demand for traditional rental housing,” added Ms. Bourassa-Ochoa. Thus, the vacancy rate will decline slightly to stand at 5.5% in 2016 and 5% in 2017.

On the Ontario side

The Ottawa side, the number of housing Housing starts decreased to between 4600 and 4800 in 2016 and between 4300 and 4900 in 2017. “Despite the improvement in economic fundamentals such as employment and income , housing housing starts will decline in 2016 and 2017 as builders reduced their starts of condominiums in response to high inventory of unsold “CMHC analysis.

The resale market will grow modestly in the Ottawa area this year and then decline next year. In 2015, MLS sales showed an increase of 5.3% from the previous year to stand at 14,842 transactions. “Historically low mortgage rates and modest price increases have indeed attracted households on the market last year,” says CMHC

In the capital, the average house price should be between $ 365,900 and $ 378,100 in 2016 and between $ 369,300 and $ 384,700 in 2017.

Across the country

Across the country, CMHC says that significant regional disparities in housing markets will be observable in the coming years and a slowdown in most sectors will have an effect on housing starts of homes in 2016 and 2017.

The agency believes that lower growth in activity in the oil-producing provinces, such as Alberta, will be partially offset by increases in activity observed in British Columbia and Ontario.

The corporation also plans a decline in resale homes in 2017 compared to this year, but expects that the average price increase during the same period, to reach up to $ 501 100 per year next.

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