There may be many forest fires in May and June this year in Quebec, because of the El Niño phenomenon.
This is the forecast made that Marc-André Parisien, a research scientist at Northern Forestry Centre Natural Resources Canada, in Edmonton. “There will be the ingredients to cause many forest fires or dry weather and warmer than average for those months of the year. We are already seeing in Alberta and British Columbia, where there are already many reported fires. It is very dry in these two provinces, “he said.
According to him, which is currently lived in the west will default in the east.
The scientist is part of a team that analyzes the progress of fires across Canada. The team carries out various seasonal maps of the severity of the fires that are available on the Internet (http://scifv.scf.rncan.gc.ca/accueil).
SOPFEU Quebec uses. “The last time there was an extreme El Niño, in 1998, there were several large fires in Quebec, Manitoba and Alberta. Conditions become conducive for major fires. In Quebec, it is in June that the damage could be greater. I hope I’m wrong, but we more often right than wrong. This is not an accurate because there are variables such as the heavy rain which may alter these predictions, “he said.
The topography and vegetation are also analyzed in the predictions.
Even if the snow cover is still imposing in northern Quebec, dry weather and unseasonably warm planned will encourage still fires. “There will be some delay compared to the west where the spring was very early and when it is very dry. It takes 10 days of dry weather and wind for the flammability rate is at maximum. Moreover, in the spring, forests are drier because the leaves are not developed, it burns faster, “he says.
Marc-André Parisien said that the situation should return to normal in July. The researcher says forecasts are modulated according to information gathered every day.
Cards seasonal forecasts severity of fires are revised every month based on meteorological data and the latest forest conditions.
The provinces and territories use this information to organize their fight fires and to deploy resources on the ground.