A two-year record. Why collapsed the price of oil

Двухлетний рекорд. Почему обвалились цены на нефть

The news from Libya, the US announced sanctions against Iran and OPEC oil production affect the cost of oil.

Oil prices fell for a record two and a half year rate. The price of Brent crude oil on July 10 reached $ 79 per barrel, is now trading at 73-74 dollar.

The reasons for the fall in oil prices was another round of trade war, the United States and China, the events in Libya and statements by Washington about Iran. Корреспондент.net tells details.


Libya – the main reason

The collapse occurred in the afternoon of 11 July, however, he stopped closer to the end of the day, and 12 July Brent was trading around 73-74 dollar. Today, prices fluctuate at the level of 73-74 per barrel.

The main reason for the fall in oil prices was the report of the National oil Corporation of Libya, which announced the imminent reopening of the oil terminals of RAS lanuf, es-Cider, Zuetina and Hariga, passed under the control of the Libyan national army and handed over to the provisional government.

Since the end of June the ports held by the insurgents, who blocked the supply of raw material with capacity of 850 thousand Barrela day, reported the Libyan Corporation.

Двухлетний рекорд. Почему обвалились цены на нефть

Militants have blocked the supply of Libyan oil / EPA

By the end of this month, experts expect that oil production in Libya will rise in two times – up to one million barrels per day. Previously it was thought that the production of Libyan oil will fall.

So, the oil market will have an additional million barrels per day and the price level after a collapse can persist for a long time, analysts say.


The US war with China and Iran

Bloomberg shortly after the fall of quotations linked him to another round of trade war, declared the American President Donald trump.

June 11, the United States has issued a new list of goods from China, which will be imposed ten percent duty – because of these measures under the tariff constraint are the goods worth $ 200 billion.

China in response has promised to file a complaint against Washington’s actions in the WTO to take countermeasures.

Experts believe that the lower prices could spur and the anxiety of market participants regarding a possible tightening of the trade war.

Oil prices also affected the statements of US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo that the United States may in exceptional cases allow some countries to buy Iranian oil after the entry of the us sanctions in force.

In early may, trump announced U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. Two weeks later, U.S. Secretary of state warned that Washington intends to provide economic, financial and, potentially, military pressure on Tehran.

He said that after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in Iran will be resumed and the old sanctions will be followed by new restrictions. States also threatened secondary sanctions partners of Tehran.

In Iran stated that, in the case that the United States will restore sanctions against Iran and impose a ban on the sale of Iranian oil, Iran can block oil supplies in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only connection with the ocean for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

It passes through 20 percent of the world’s oil, so the world needs this oil, podcherknula in Tehran.

Pompeo statement means that the loss of Iranian supplies will not be as significant as expected and production of oil Iran will not fall by more than a million barrels to 2.8 million per day.


The influence of OPEC

Decrease in quotations and spurred monthly report of OPEC. Oil demand to 2019 will increase by 1.45 million barrels per day compared to an increase of 1.65 million this year for the first time exceed $ 100 million, OPEC predicts.

However, the organization warns that the current trade friction between States can have a negative impact on the oil market, if the announced rates will not be lifted any time soon.

OPEC expects 2019 increasing supplies countries outside the cartel, to 2.1 million barrels per day. The demand for oil cartel will amount to 32.2 million, 0.8 million less than in 2018.

According to the results of the last meeting the participants of OPEC promised to increase supply by one million barrels a day since July. However, according to secondary sources, only one, Saudi Arabia has increased production to 405 thousand barrels per day.

Thus the risk of shortage of supply is not on the horizon 2018-2019.


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