THREE RIVERS — While the minimum wage will increase to $ 12 in a few days, a new form of socio-economic of the IRIS evaluates the economic impacts of regional compensation 15 $/h. The positive effects are 9 to 11 times greater than the effect of job losses to be recognized. They illustrate by an increase in the wage bill of workers and lower-income women workers in each of the regions of Quebec.
Thus, in the Mauricie region, this increase is between 78 and $ 118 million, according to the scenarios, and from 66 to 106 million in the Centre-du-Québec. The highest result takes into account the effect of emulation, or the impact of an increase in the minimum wage on the pay of people whose hourly rate is just above the new minimum wage.
“The economic benefits due to the increase in the minimum wage to $15/hour are extremely beneficial for every region of Quebec, even taking into account the weak job losses anticipated,” says economist Pierre-Antoine Harvey, one of the authors of the plug. “Essentially, what we note, as much for the Centre-du-Québec and Mauricie, is that the impact is proportional to the size of the labour market in these regions compared to the economy as a whole,” says the co-author, Julien Laflamme.
These are the women who would benefit most from a minimum wage increase. The observation is even more pronounced far away from the major centres. With the effect of emulation, this would be 57.6% in the Mauricie region and 51.5% for the Centre-du-Québec.
“An area where the impact is less concentrated towards the women, such as, for example, the Centre-du-Québec, it may mean that at the base, before the increase in the minimum wage, it is already a region where the proportion of women at the bottom of 15 dollars an hour is less important than in the Mauricie region,” says Mr. Laflamme, in the interview, the Nouvelliste.
His colleague adds that “not surprisingly, the increase in the minimum wage has a greater impact in women. In effect, they harvest in each region (more than 50 % of the increase in the wage bill”, he remarked.
What’s more, according to Mr. Laflamme, “our analyses show that a majority of households keep more than half of the wage gains linked to the increase”. “Depending on the type of household, we observe that their available income could rise between 2780 and $ 4315 $ in the event of a passage of the minimum wage to $ 15”, he says.
In Quebec, the impact of a rise in the minimum wage to $ 15 per hour are estimated to be between 2.2 and 3.4 billion dollars. According to the authors of the study, in addition to combating in-work poverty and addressing the inequalities of income imposed on the labour market, this measure would reduce the wage gap between women and their male colleagues.
Such an increase would have the effect of increasing, they say, domestic demand, in particular by the increase in the consumption of households with low wages. “In fact, a significant part of the earnings of low wage earners is likely to be spent on goods and services from companies, which would sustain the economy of our regions,” they pretend they.
“If the economist Pierre Fortin has suggested that such an increase would destroy up to 100 000 jobs, several recent studies have come to refute this catastrophic scenario,” concludes the group.
Increase the wage by region, $millions
Administrative region Scenario 1* Scenario 2**
Abitibi-Témiscamingue 34 49
Bas-Saint-Laurent 47 76
Capitale-Nationale 180 292
Centre-du-Québec 66 106
Chaudière-Appalaches 109 176
Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec 27 42
Estrie 85 132
Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine 27 40
Lanaudière 125 203
Laurentides 173 257
Laval 127 186
Mauricie 78 118
Montérégie 382 589
Montreal 619 911
Ottawa 84 126
Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean 76 116
All of Quebec 2239 3418
Source : LFS, Statistics Canada; IRIS
*No emulation **With effect emulation